There’s an old saying in football that ‘goals change games’, and that can also be applied to any incident that shapes the overall way in which a match is played out: it could be a red card, an injury to a key player or any other similarly important event.
One of the reasons that some punters opt for in-play betting, rather than placing their wagers before kick-off, is that they can react to these unforeseen ‘game state’ changers – enabling them to find value once the match is underway.
In this article, we’re going to take a look at some of the key game state variables that can change how a match plays out – whether it’s the underdog scoring early, the favourite having a player sent off or some other unexpected event that can shift the betting odds considerably.
Betting After an Early Goal
When a team scores an early goal, it’s likely – although not an absolute given – that they will take their foot off the gas, instead preferring to keep players behind the ball and not commit to an all-out attacking strategy.
The implication of this is that the other team, who of course now need to score, will instead try to attack more readily – this can have a marked impact upon the stats of a game, which in turn can provide punters with some interesting angles of attack.
The excellent football analytics account 11tegen11, which you can find on Twitter (or X if you prefer), has written about game states in the past, and their findings are that teams that are a goal or two goals behind tend to outshoot their opposition – this isn’t an exact science for every game, but confirms that the greater need to score manifests itself in more attacking actions. The same will likely be the case for corners and shots on targets, too.
The same research found that when a team is three goals or more ahead, they generally regress to their mean – basically, they continue to attack in a way that would normally be expected of, perhaps as a result of having a decent cushion in the scoreline. For more insight, you can see game state data played out here.
So how does all of this information assist punters? It can be particularly helpful to those that bet on the ‘prop’ markets that are increasing in popularity – that is, the options you can find under the Bet Builder tool like shots, shots on target, corners, goalkeeper saves etc. If you’re betting on the favourite to have lots of the above and they go a goal ahead early, you may be facing disappointment; there’s no incentive for them to attack and fire in stacks of shots.
Instead, by waiting until the game is live, you will get a better understanding of how to bet – when a first-half goal goes in, it’s well worth taking a look at the odds for the losing side to run up plenty of shots and win lots of corners… especially when it’s a home favourite that has gone a goal down.
Betting on game states in this way can be more prescriptive: we’re not backing the losing team to score goals and win the game, we are simply betting on the time-honoured pattern of play – i.e. a side chasing a goal to get back into the contest – taking place.
Betting After a Red Card
While a goal will create the biggest change to the game state dynamics, a red card is also significant when it comes to patterns of play and predicting how the two teams will subsequently go about their business.
In the vast majority of cases, a team that has received a red card will batten down the hatches and look to play for a draw – or, in some instances, they will look to attack on the counter only. There are anomalies, such as when a hot, odds-on favourite is reduced to ten men and yet still dominates possession and play against a passive underdog.
But on the whole, a red card changes the entire face of a game – the data shows that, from a huge bank of leagues and competitions, a home team will win on average 47.8% of games. Having been reduced to ten men, this ratio falls to just 18.5%. But if the away team is shown a red, the home side’s win probability increases to 57.7%.
These win percentages reveal how the red card changes the game state, not only in terms of the final result but also in the passages of play that lead up to it. Teams that have been shown a red score fewer goals and concede more as a result.
So when we’re betting in-play, we can use this notion to inform our wagers. We still need to know more about the teams – when Man City are reduced to ten men, for example, they don’t suddenly turn into a defensive side because that’s not their style; but they may become more vulnerable to counter attacks nonetheless.
But we would expect them to have fewer shots and corners as a result, given that their attacking supremacy will be lessened. That’s a handy in-play angle when you have access to the ‘unders’ lines.
If you hold on a little longer, another game state dynamic might present itself – a team reduced to ten men that then concedes a goal. Will they chase the game, leaving themselves exposed defensively, or will they settle for a one-goal margin of defeat?
How to Bet on Football In-Play: Wait and See
Only fools rush in, sang Elvis Presley on Can’t Help Falling in Love.
The Blue Suede Shoes songsmith had no concept of betting on the football all those decades ago, but his sensible words can be applied by in-play punters to ensure that they don’t act in haste.
Instead, wait for a ‘hook’ on which to hang your in-play wagers, and by that we mean a changing game state that we can see, thanks to the data, will have a very specific impact on how the rest of the match will play out.
Expect the unexpected is another useful mantra for football punters; but when it does happen, be sure you are ready to react to the changing odds.