As human beings, we are condemned to share many of the physical and personality traits of our ancestors – it’s simply our DNA.
The same is true of horse racing, in which an offspring is considered to be likely, to some extent, to take on the characteristics of their sire (father), dam (mother) and other ancestors in the family lineage.
So how does that help us, the humble punter? Well, if a horse has a probabilistic chance of performing like their bloodline, clearly there’s some predictive history that we can use to inform our betting decisions.
Using pedigree in your horse racing bets is not an exact science, with a strong bloodline producing star quality in the next generation of progeny every time – Frankel, one of the most in-demand sires at stud despite his mammoth fee of £350,000 per turn, fathers dozens of offspring every year.
Likewise, a horse cannot be written off as a dud simply because they don’t have a champion lineage.
But, all things considered, pedigree can be used as just one of the tools in a punter’s arsenal to help them predict how a race will play out.
Juveniles and Novices: Breeding Clues
By the time a racehorse reaches the age of, say, five, we have a good idea of the kind of animal they’re going to be out on the track. Some have a bright star to their career and fade, while others are late bloomers, but for the most part pundits and punters are in the loop after a couple of seasons of racing.
But that’s not always the case with juvenile horses just starting out in their careers, or novices aged three or four who little is known of as yet.
This is where breeding can be particularly interesting for a punter. To offer some idea, Frankel has produced some of the best juveniles in racing in modern times, such as Chaldean, Inspiral and Quadrilateral. These are horses that punters would have known very little about aside from that pedigree, which in itself is enough to rev the engines of the betting public.
Not all of Frankel’s offspring enjoy successful racing careers, but when punting on races in which little is known about the horses – usually at the lower end of the age range – the appearance of Frankel’s name, as one example of a successful sire, in the bloodline is the only clue that a punter needs.
As a general rule, the progeny of well-respected sires and dams tend to perform better than unknown pairings – there are many exceptions, of course, but this is a general rule. However, the bookies tend to be tuned into that trait too; hence why the offspring of illustrious bloodlines are often shorter prices than they might otherwise be; particularly those juvenile and young-age races where little is known of the field.
So you have to choose your pedigree-based bets wisely: getting value is still the ultimate aim, whether you’re backing a horse from a star-studded family or not.
Analysing Frankel: UK Racing’s Top Sire
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We’ve already mentioned Frankel by name, so it’s worth examining the stud career of a horse that can only be described as ‘prolific’ when it comes to breeding the next generation of racehorses.
To offer some context, Frankel was a champion racehorse in his own regard, enjoying a 14-race unbeaten career that saw him land some of UK Flat racing’s most prestigious prizes – on his way to being ranked as the highest-rated racehorse of all time.
At the culmination of his own career, Frankel was put into stud as a stallion in waiting – he sired his first foals on, believe it or not, Valentine’s Day 2013.
Since then, Frankel has fathered more than 100 offspring – the majority of which have been trained for racing. As you would expect from such a large number, there have been fantastic success stories and great disappointments along the way.
For added context, at the time of writing, eight of Frankel’s progeny have gone on to earn £2 million or more in prize money during their careers – Westover the pick of the bunch with £3.3 million in earnings.
But all stories deserve some balance, so here’s a look at the form of Frankel’s UK based progeny in February 2024: 18 outings, four wins, four places. Something of a mixed bag.
We’ve used Frankel as our example because he’s something of a ‘celebrity stallion’ in UK racing, but he also illuminated the point: a horse’s breeding is only part of the puzzle when trying to predict the outcome of races.
But here’s an interesting caveat. Frankel himself was a champion in races over around one-mile in length. And here’s the statistics of his progeny in races on UK soil between seven and nine furlongs:
- 421 outings
- 188 winners
- 45% success rate
- £12.5 million in prize money
As such, any of Frankel’s offspring that run over distances of around a mile have to be given a second glance on the racecard!
What is the Most Successful Bloodline in Racing?
Frankel forms part of what is racing breeding’s own answer to the Harlem Globetrotters.
His sire, Galileo, was a Derby, Irish Derby and King George winner, but has enjoyed just as much success as a stallion: in addition to Frankel, he’s sired more than 85 Group 1 winners and five Derby champions – spreading his DNA into a new generation of superstars.
Frankel’s grandparents also include a who’s who of racing and breeding class. Sadler’s Wells was the European Champion Miler in 1984, whose progeny include a litany of Group 1 winners like Salsabil, Opera House, Montjeu and the amazing Istabraq.
Urban Sea won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and mothered foals including Galileo and Derby, Arc and 2,000 Guineas champion Sea the Stars, while Frankel’s maternal grandfather, Danehill, was – until Galileo came along – the most successful sire in history, producing some 89 Grade 1 winners.
There’s tales to be told about those further back in the bloodline, such as Northern Dancer and Danzig, but needless to say this is a lineage steeped in champion DNA.
The progeny of this family line might not necessarily go on to achieve great things on the track, but it’s a damn good start nonetheless.